Analysis and Discussion

I located and read 5 articles that compared the economies under the Biden and Trump Administrations. Each of the 5 articles indicated that economy has finally recovered from the Covid-19 pandemic and the subsequent 9.1% inflation rate from 2022. However, 60% of polled individuals believe that the economy was better under Trump. Charts within each of the articles shows that the economy has not only recovered but it has improved in some cases.

 

Article Review

According to a "September 12 - 16, 2024 Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research (AP-NORC poll; poll), ... the economy is one of the most important issues for about 8 in 10 voters as they consider which candidate to support, dwarfing other top issues like health care and crime." (Voters split on whether Harris or Trump would do a better job on the economy: AP-NORC poll; The Associated Press, September 20, 2024)

 

Trump is comparing the economy under his administration to that under the Biden Administration.  A June 2024 AP-NORC poll indicated that "about 6 in 10 Americans disapproved of his handling of the economy. Earlier this year, Americans were much more likely to say that Trump's presidency helped the country on cost of living and job creation, compared to Biden's."

 

The March 12, 2024, Vox.com article Biden’s vs. Trump’s Economy, in 8 Charts properly reported that the “American economic pessimism has been bafflingly persistent despite major indicators showing that the economy is … strong. Unemployment is low, inflation is significantly down from its 2022 peak (if sticky and ticking up in the last month), wages are up, the stock market is hitting new all-time highs, and it looks like the Federal Reserve might be able to keep the U.S. out of a recession.” (The Federal Reserve [Fed] lowered the interest rate by 0.50% on September 18, 2024. This was the Fed's 1st rate decrease in 4 years.) 

 

However, “... any broad comparison [of the Trump and Biden economies] is complicated by the huge disruptions at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020, which triggered two of the most extreme quarters of economic contraction and growth in U.S. history, followed by a bout of inflation reminiscent of the 1970s."  (Inflation reach 9.1% in 2022.)  [Reuters.com article The Rematch: The Trump and Biden Economies by the Numbers, published June 25, 2024]

 

The Reuters.com article continued “Should Trump be blamed for a collapse in output that rivaled the Great Depression? Should Biden get credit for millions of jobs created in 2021 that were largely a pandemic rebound?”

 

According to the Vox.com article "[t]here’s no denying that the economy was good under Trump, and the 2019 pre-pandemic economy is now seen as a baseline against which Biden’s economy is being judged. But Trump arrived in office when the economy was already … strong. [Trump] was 'just riding on the coattails of a 10-year-long economic recovery,' said Alí R. Bustamante, deputy director of worker power and economic security at Roosevelt Forward, the progressive political arm of the Roosevelt Institute"

 

The Vox.com article continued:

"… some of Trump’s signature economic policies have … been found to have had little to no measurable effect on the economy — and a few might have even hurt. Multiple studies have shown that the Trump tariffs at best had a neutral effect on the economy and at worst cost America hundreds of thousands of jobs and higher prices for consumers. And his 2017 tax cuts, which increased investment in the economy and contributed to modest wage growth in the short term, fell far short of Republicans’ promise that they would pay for themselves and are projected to significantly raise federal debt and increase income inequality."

 

"Biden, on the other hand, faced the immediate task upon assuming office of heading off a recession as the country started to bounce back from the pandemic. The US did recover from that pandemic economic slump. But there is evidence that his policies, including the stimulus checks he issued, contributed to an inflationary spiral."

 

The AP-NORC poll found that "[t]he aftermath of inflation's spike in 2022 to a four-decade high has pervaded this year's presidential contest. Shoppers are upset over their grocery bills. Higher interest rates are financially squeezing the buyers of homes and motor vehicles. All that has appeared to matter more to the public than the low 4.2% unemployment rate and stock market gains."

 

A March 4, 2024 PolitiFact article called The Biden-versus-Trump economy: Who did better on inflation, jobs, gasoline prices and more? stated that:

 

"Under Biden, U.S. employment is now 10% above what it was when he was sworn in. Ranking second after three years is Clinton, with almost 8%, followed by Trump with 4.4%. Both Obama and Bush had fewer jobs filled after three years than they had on their first day in office." …

 

"Still, the simple return of workers sidetracked by the pandemic doesn’t explain all the job gains on Biden’s watch, even though Trump has tried to make that case. Employment data through Biden’s first three years in office significantly exceeds where the workforce stood before the pandemic."

 

“Another factor in the expanding labor market — though one that’s become a political two-edged sword — has been higher immigration rates under Biden. This has helped fuel the economy, according to analyses by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office and others, even as it lets critics discuss chaos at the border.” …

 

“The data shows that manufacturing jobs have grown by about 6.5% since Biden took office. Trump ranks second at 3.4%, followed by Clinton at 2.5%. Three years into their terms, Obama and Bush had both overseen losses in manufacturing jobs.”

 

"Unemployment reached its lowest level since 1969 under Biden, and the US gained a record 7.27 million new jobs in 2021, fueled by a recovery in the labor market as vaccines became available and the country opened up. Job creation has remained strong in the years since but slowed to 2.7 million jobs added in 2023."

 

In summary, as of June 2024, the Gross Domestic Product has now returned to pre-pandemic levels; inflation has dropped significantly from 2022 levels; employment is higher under Biden Administration than during both the Obama and Trump Administrations; the unemployment rate approximates that of the Trump Administration pre-Covid-19; wages rose under Trump at a rate similar to the Obama Administration; average weekly wages during the pandemic increased for people who were still working; and, the stock market under Biden has been better than under Trump.

 

Sources:

"Voters split on whether Harris or Trump would do a better job on the economy: AP-NORC poll"

The Associated Press

by JOSH BOAK and LINLEY SANDERS

September 20, 2024, Updated 10:25 AM EDT

https://apnews.com/article/harris-trump-economy-poll-inflation-dc80ac9e5d7da42900762910d5f0a283

 

"The Biden-versus-Trump economy:

Who did better on inflation, jobs, gasoline prices and more?"

PolitiFact (The Poynter Institute)

By Louis Jacobson

March 4, 2024

https://www.politifact.com/article/2024/mar/04/Biden-Trump-economy-who-did-better/

 

"Biden’s vs. Trump’s economy, in 8 charts"

VOX.com

by Nicole Narea

Updated Mar 12, 2024, 3:00 PM EDT

https://www.vox.com/politics/24094752/biden-trump-strong-economy-2024-inflation

 

"Is US economy better or worse now than under Trump?"

BBC.com

By: Jake Horton (BBC Verify)

2 September 2024

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c8xl5vnlzpwo

 

Reuters.com

By Howard Schneider and Sarah Slobin

Published June 25, 2024, 06:00 AM EDT

https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-ELECTION/TRUMP-BIDEN-ECON/lgvdoowmkpo/

Voters split on whether Harris or Trump would do

a better job on the economy: AP-NORC poll

 

"Going into November's election, neither Kamala Harris nor Donald Trump has a decisive edge with the public on the economy, turning an issue that was once a clear strength for Trump into the equivalent of a political jump ball."

 

"About 4 in 10 registered voters say Republican Trump would do a better job handling the economy, while a similar number say that about the Democratic vice president, according to a new poll by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. About 1 in 10 voters don’t trust either candidate, and a similar share has equal faith in them."

 

"The aftermath of inflation's spike in 2022 to a four-decade high has pervaded this year's presidential contest. Shoppers are upset over their grocery bills. Higher interest rates are financially squeezing the buyers of homes and motor vehicles. All that has appeared to matter more to the public than the low 4.2% unemployment rate and stock market gains."

 

"According to the AP-NORC poll, only about one-third of voters say the state of the national economy is somewhat or very good, although they're more optimistic about their own situation, with about 6 in 10 voters saying their household's finances are somewhat or very good. Both of those numbers have remained steady over the course of the year, despite falling inflation."

 

The AP-NORC poll of 1,771 registered voters was conducted September 12-16, 2024, using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for registered voters is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.

The Biden-Versus-Trump Economy:

Who Did Better on Inflation, Jobs, Gasoline Prices and More?

 

According to this March 4, 2024 PolitiFact article, "... U.S. employment is ... 10% above what it was when [Biden] was sworn in. Ranking second after three years is Clinton, with almost 8%, followed by Trump with 4.4%. Both Obama and Bush had fewer jobs filled after three years than they had on their first day in office."

 

"Biden benefited from favorable timing. He was inaugurated January 2021, as the pandemic started receding. Although the jobs recovery began under Trump, Biden was blessed with a steady flow of Americans moving back into jobs that had been hampered during the pandemic."

 

"Still, the simple return of workers sidetracked by the pandemic doesn’t explain all the job gains on Biden’s watch, even though Trump has tried to make that case. Employment data through Biden’s first three years in office significantly exceeds where the workforce stood before the pandemic."

 

"Another factor in the expanding labor market — though one that’s become a political two-edged sword — has been higher immigration rates under Biden. This has helped fuel the economy, according to analyses by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office and others, even as it lets critics discuss chaos at the border."

 

"Biden has emphasized the growth of manufacturing jobs when touting bills he’s signed into law, including the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, the CHIPS and Science Act, and the Inflation Reduction Act."

 

"The data shows that manufacturing jobs have grown by about 6.5% since Biden took office. Trump ranks second at 3.4%, followed by Clinton at 2.5%. Three years into their terms, Obama and Bush had both overseen losses in manufacturing jobs."

 

"Unemployment reached its lowest level since 1969 under Biden, and the US gained a record 7.27 million new jobs in 2021, fueled by a recovery in the labor market as vaccines became available and the country opened up. Job creation has remained strong in the years since, but slowed to 2.7 million jobs added in 2023."

Biden’s vs. Trump’s Economy, in 8 Charts

 

According to this Vox.com article, American economic pessimism has been bafflingly persistent despite major indicators showing that the economy is actually strong. Unemployment is low, inflation is significantly down from its 2022 peak (if sticky and ticking up in the last month), wages are up, the stock market is hitting new all-time highs, and it looks like the Federal Reserve might be able to keep the U.S. out of a recession. (The Federal Reserve [Fed] lowered the interest rate by 0.50% on September 18, 2024. The Fed's 1st rate decrease in 4 years.) 

 

"There’s no denying that the economy was good under Trump, and the 2019 pre-pandemic economy is now seen as a baseline against which Biden’s economy is being judged."

 

"But Trump arrived in office when the economy was already pretty strong. He was “just riding on the coattails of a 10-year-long economic recovery,” said Alí R. Bustamante, deputy director of worker power and economic security at Roosevelt Forward, the progressive political arm of the Roosevelt Institute."

 

"Biden, on the other hand, faced the immediate task upon assuming office of heading off a recession as the country started to bounce back from the pandemic. The U.S. did recover from that pandemic economic slump. But there is evidence that his policies, including the stimulus checks he issued, contributed to an inflationary spiral."

 

"While inflation has come down substantially from its 9.1 percent peak in June 2022, it still remains above the Fed’s target rate, and “ongoing progress toward our 2 percent inflation objective is not assured,” Fed chair Jerome Powell told lawmakers in early March."

 

"Unemployment reached its lowest level since 1969 under Biden, and the U.S. gained a record 7.27 million new jobs in 2021, fueled by a recovery in the labor market as vaccines became available and the country opened up. Job creation has remained strong in the years since, but slowed to 2.7 million jobs added in 2023."

 

"According to a chart within the article, "the unemployment rate and share of discouraged workers in the labor force is back to pre-pandemic levels under Biden"  (Discouraged workers are defined as "those who have tried and failed to find a job and have given up looking even though they would prefer to be working".)

 

Is US Economy Better or Worse Now Than Under Trump?

 

This article from BBC.com (U.S. and Canada) was written in early September 2024.

 

According to the article, [despite] the impact of Covid [making] comparison[s] difficult, both presidents can count some notable economic successes despite wages struggling to keep up with price increases in recent years."

 

To illustrate the economies during the Trump and Biden Administrations, the BBC provides comparative charts and brief discussions of GDP; inflation rate; employment (all employees, total non-farm payrolls), unemployment rate (percent of US labor force not in work); wages (average weekly earnings, adjusted for inflation); and financial markets (stock market growth and jitters: The Dow Jones Index)

 

Reviewing the charts, as of June 2024, the Gross Domestic Product has now returned to pre-pandemic levels; inflation has dropped significantly from 2022 levels; employment is higher under Biden Administration than during both the Obama and Trump Administrations; the unemployment rate approximates that of the Trump Administration pre-Covid-19; wages rose under Trump at a rate similar to the the Obama Administration; average weekly wages during the pandemic increased for people who were still working; and, the stock market under Biden has been better than under Trump.

 

The Rematch: The Trump and Biden Economies by the Numbers

 

"... [A]ny broad comparison [of the Trump and Biden economies] is complicated by the huge disruptions at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020, which triggered two of the most extreme quarters of economic contraction and growth in U.S. history, followed by a bout of inflation reminiscent of the 1970s."

 

"Should Trump be blamed for a collapse in output that rivaled the Great Depression? Should Biden get credit for millions of jobs created in 2021 that were largely a pandemic rebound? [This June 25, 2024 Reuters.com article analyzes] key measures of economic performance - from growth overall to the labor market, from tariffs to tax collections - that illustrate the contrasts and similarities between the economies under both."

 

"The broadest measure of an economy’s performance is annualized growth in gross domestic product, a figure that counts every widget produced, every meal served, and every dollar spent by the government to measure changes to the country’s overall output." ...

 

"Quarterly growth during Trump’s first three years, up to the pandemic, and Biden’s term beginning in 2021, compounded at an almost identical rate that annualizes to around 2.7%. Excluding Biden’s first year, arguably still influenced by the pandemic, it was a slower 2.3%."

 

"Trump made tax cuts a centerpiece of his administration. Biden pushed through some modest tax increases and has proposed even more aggressive actions. ... [However], [e]ven after adjusting for inflation federal tax collections have been rising. Against expectations, the pandemic era became one of fast wage hikes and high corporate profits, linked at least to some degree to federal household and business support programs, as well as to high inflation. Tax receipts followed."

 

"The flipside to GDP is Gross Domestic Income, an estimate of what people and companies earn in return for inventing, producing and selling all those widgets and services. How it should get distributed is a perennial debate in U.S. politics. Trump may have stocked his cabinet with Wall Street allies and boasted of tax cuts for business, but companies took a larger share of GDI under Biden; the share for workers stayed fairly constant."

 

"Worried about a depression-style collapse, Congress approved trillions of dollars in payments to households, pumping up bank accounts with disposable income that consumers used freely first to buy goods and then later on “revenge” spending on services like eating out and travel that were unavailable during the pandemic. Over time inflation caught up and eroded some of that purchasing power."

 

"One thing the Trump and Biden economies shared is a strong labor market. The jobless rate was 3.6% at the end of 2019, before the pandemic; it has gone as low as 3.4% under Biden and until May had been below 4% for more than two years. Regardless of who’s in the White House, and whether it is for demographic or other reasons, the U.S. seems to have slipped into a period of sustained demand for workers, with a pandemic rebound that surprised even the most seasoned economists."

 

"Filling jobs requires bodies, and for years after the 2007 to 2009 recession economists felt the U.S. labor force was forever scarred. There are demographic limits in an aging population. But economists are realizing that strong job markets, if they last long enough, do pull workers from the sidelines and into employment. One key difference: Rising immigration under Biden allowed job growth to continue at a higher level than it might have otherwise, absent higher wages."

 

Note

Monthly data current through May 2024; Disposable Income as of April 2024; Quarterly figures through Q1 2024; Wages as of March 2024

 

Sources

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; U.S. Census Bureau; U.S. Treasury Department, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta